2018 Academy Award Predictions and Snubs

The 90th year of the Academy Awards is upon us. With the rollercoaster of a year that was 2017, cinema continued to persist among the chaotic events of the past 12 months. 2017 was a fantastic year for film, with this year’s nominees ranging from masterful works of indie art to divisive, experimental genre films. Therefore, here are our predictions for this year’s Academy Award ceremony, and the many snubs that accompanied the announcement.

Check out the full list of nominees here.

 

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Who WILL Win: TIE: “The Shape of Water”, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who SHOULD Win: TIE: “Call Me by Your Name”, “Get Out”, or “The Shape of Water”

Snubs: “Blade Runner 2049”, “The Florida Project”, “Good Time”, “Wind River”

I wish we could call this an easy year to choose the best, but that’s the problem. This year saw dozens of films worthy of the grand prize at this year’s ceremony, many of which aren’t even nominated. “Three Billboards” dominated the most recent Golden Globe Awards, while “The Shape of Water” swept the Critics’ Choice Awards, two of the more prestigious ceremonies in the country.

That said, “Call Me by Your Name” and “Get Out” were major sleeper hits that were masterful genre works by two ingenious directors. It is also very possible that “Dunkirk” may make a surprise win.

Unfortunately, many other brilliant works missed the catch. Most notably, “Blade Runner 2049” was the biggest snub for this category, as the sci-fi is being praised as one of the greatest sequels ever made. Other snubs include the bizarre crime-thriller “Good Time” and the detective-thriller “Wind River”.

 
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Who WILL Win: Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)

Who SHOULD Win: TIE: Guillermo del Toro or Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”)

Snubs: Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me by Your Name”), Denis Villeneuve (“Blade Runner 2049”)

As Guillermo himself during his Golden Globe win speech, “It’s taken 25 years for this”. With masterpieces such as “Pans Labyrinth” (2006) and “The Devil’s Backbone” (2001) behind his back, his newest fantastical work just may be the key to his longly-deserved directing Oscar.

Like del Toro, Christopher Nolan, another modern auteur, enters the stage with his first Oscar nomination as well, and is another worthy contender, helming the epic that was “Dunkirk”

Although it was exciting to see Paul Thomas Anderson nominated, there were several snubs in this category. After Denis Villeneuve, director of “Blade Runner 2049” secured a BAFTA nomination for directing, it was a safe bet to assume he would be obtaining his second directing nomination after last year’s “Arrival” (2016). It was a major disappointment to miss his name among the nominees, along with “Call Me by Your Name” director Luca Guadagnino.

 
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Who WILL Win: Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri")

Who SHOULD Win: Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”)

Snubs: Nicole Kidman (“The Killing of a Sacred Deer”, “The Beguiled”), Sreymoch Sareum (“First They Killed My Father”)

It would be an understatement to say that “Three Billboards” has been dominating the majority of this year’s acting awards. With wins from multiple ceremonies, it is safe to assume that Frances McDormand has a strong chance of winning her second Oscar.

Saoirse Ronan of “Lady Bird”, however, was able to portray the true nature of a rebellious, anxious teen as the titular character so accurately that it wouldn’t be a surprise if she wins the golden statue.

 
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Who WILL Win: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)

Who SHOULD Win: Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”) or Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”)

Snubs: James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”), Hugh Jackman (“Logan”), Robert Pattison (“Good Time”)

Gary Oldman is likely to win this year. That isn’t to say he doesn’t deserve it. In fact, it is surprising that throughout the decades of his career that he hasn’t one a single Oscar. This year may see a reverse to that.

Whereas Oldman’s performance is bombastic and aggressive, Timothée Chalamet and Daniel Kaluuya both gave subtler, yet brilliant performances in their respective films. Both, despite being young, are at the top of their game and most certainly are deserving of this year’s Best Actor Award.

 
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Who WILL Win: Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)

Who SHOULD Win: Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)

Snubs: Sylvia Hoeks (“Blade Runner 2049”), Dafne Keen (“Logan”)

Allison Janney is long overdue for an Oscar nomination. After her wins at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards, a win at the Academy Awards seems likely.

However, the most deserving of those nominated is Laurie Metcalf. Widely known for her role as Sheldon’s mother in “The Big Band Theory” (2007-), Metcalf shines as a different kind of mother, highlighting the rough bond between a mother and her daughter so beautifully, it brings both laughs and tears.

 
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Who WILL Win: Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Who SHOULD Win: Sam Rockwell or Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)

Snubs: Mark Hamill (“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”), Armie Hammer (“Call Me by Your Name”), Barry Keoghan (“The Killing of a Sacred Deer”), Patrick Stewart (“Logan”)

This will likely be the most divisive category of the lot, not because of who is nominated, but because of who isn’t nominated. Regardless, the top two contenders for this category are Sam Rockwell and Willem Dafoe, who both arguably give the best performances of their careers.

The snubs in this category, however, are numerous. Christopher Plummer is a controversial nominee, as his role completely consists of reshoots that are a result of the Kevin Spacey scandal, but that is the least concerning. Mark Hamill and Patrick Stewart both gave the best performances of their careers as Luke Skywalker and Charles Xavier respectively, and Armie Hammer being completely overshadowed is a major upset.

 
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Who WILL Win: Jordan Peele (“Get Out”)

Who SHOULD Win: Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”)

Snubs: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Phantom Thread), Josh Safdie and Ron Bronstein (“Good Time”), Taylor Sheridan (“Wind River”)

Being the twisted, magnificent tale that it is, a win for “Get Out” seems inevitable. The pitch-perfect combination of horror and comic relief, sided by convincing characters, stunning twists, and a message on modern society marks pure strength for the writer-director.

Peele’s only real competition is Greta Gerwig, who is also deserving of this award.

 
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Who WILL Win: James Ivory (“Call Me by Your Name”)

Who SHOULD Win: James Ivory or Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green (“Logan”)

Snubs: Hampton Fitcher and Michael Green (“Blade Runner 2049”)

“Call Me by Your Name” and “Logan” are both masterpieces within their respective genres. “Logan” took the idea of the superhero into a whole new direction with elements of Westerns and Road-trip films implemented, while “Call Me by Your Name” portrayed a budding relationship through basic, but meaningful movement and dialogue with the masterful stroke of a pen.

 
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Who WILL Win: Alexandre Desplat (“The Shape of Water”)

Who SHOULD Win: Jonny Greenwood (“Phantom Thread”) or Hans Zimmer (“Dunkirk”)

Snubs: Ben Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer (“Blade Runner 2049”)

Although it is a long-shot, Jonny Greenwood and Hans Zimmer should be the top contenders for this year’s Oscar for Best Original Score. Both add too mood, atmosphere, and emotion what no other nominee this year has done.

 
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Who WILL Win: Roger Deakins (“Blade Runner 2049)

Who SHOULD Win: Roger Deakins

If Roger Deakins doesn’t finally win an Oscar this year for the spectacle that was “Blade Runner 2049”, then the Academy will lose all credibility. Roger Deakins is arguably the greatest cinematographer who has ever lived, and “Blade Runner 2049” is his magnum opus. Every shot looks as if it is out of an art collection. 14 nominations later, this year is his greatest chance at winning the statue he has long deserved.

 

Ryan ParkerComment